Cathay Pacific management just hosted an analysts briefing this morning. Keytakeaways :
1H2017 continued to see intense passenger yield pressure. The pressurewas more intense in the back-end. There were also higher operating costs(eg fuel costs and restructuring costs)。 Associate Air China had lowercontributions. It sounds to us that 1H2017 results, expected to beannounced in Aug 2017, will not be good.
management expect to see signs of improvement in 2H 2017. Cargomarket should continue to do well. They are also hoping that some oftheir passenger yield improvement measures will bear fruit. Front endpassenger demand appears to have stabilised.
they have kept their 4% ASK pa growth guidance over the next few yearsthey are in early stages of a 3 year transformation programme where theyare targeting an 8% return on capital employed by 2019.
Our view:
We are comfortable with our Sell rating and expect the company to losemoney this year. Recent share price outperformance has not been warranted inour view.