FY16 results missed on impairment and other non-op losses
Jiangxi Copper released FY16 annual results with NPAT of RMB841mn,representing a 22% rise YoY. Results achieved only c.84% and c.67% of DBand consensus estimates and missed the company’s profit alert of 40-60% YoYgrowth guidance released in January. Despite the c.6% YoY decline in copperprice, revenue and gross profit out-performed estimates and increased c.9%and c.74% YoY, respectively. However, the company recorded c.RMB1296mnof impairment losses as well as additional losses on fair value changes, andwith the added effect of high effective tax rate, earnings significantly missedestimates.
Strong recurring 2H earnings on copper price momentum; 2017 guidance
Overall 2H gross profit increased 67% YoY and 108% HoH, attributing tostronger copper segment performance post President Trump’s election victory.The copper price increased 10% HoH and with added effect from thecompany’s cost saving initiatives during the year, copper segmentperformance increased c.74% HoH at the gross profit level during 2H. IR hasindicated that the large impairment write-down during 4Q is attributable to baddebt expenses recorded at management’s discretion on aging tradereceivables. Non-ops aside, recurring NPAT rose c.1039% YoY owing to largecontributions from 2H earnings. Into 2017, production guidance is 1360kt ofcopper cathodes (11% increase YoY), and 209kt of self-produced copper (flatYoY). Also, the company indicated that if everything progresses according toplan, the fastest estimated completion time for the A/H share placement isaround June/July.
Maintaining Hold on current valuation; risks
Our target price of HKD12.7 for JXC is based on DCF life-of-mine, in which weassume a 9.6% WACC. We adopt 11.7% as cost of equity, implying a risk-freerate of 3.9%, market risk premium of 5.6% and beta of 1.4. The stock is tradingat 22x/21x Deutsche Bank’s 2017/18 EPS estimates and 0.8x Deutsche Bank’s2017/18 BVPS estimate. Maintaining Hold on current valuation. Risks includehigher/lower-than-expected realized copper price and higher/lower-thanexpectedproduction costs.