CHINA RAILWAY GROUP(00390.HK):BUSINESS STRUCTURE OPTIMIZATION ACCELERATING MAINTAIN "BUY"
Maintain "Buy" rating; increase TP to HK$7.60. We forecast EPS in 2022-2024 to be RMB1.30 /RMB1.45 /RMB1.62, with YoY growth rate of 16%/ 11%/12%. We raise target price to HK$7.60, corresponding to 5.1x/ 4.6x/ 4.1x 2022 /2023 /2024 PER.
We expect business structure to continue to be optimized, with proportion of new infrastructure and new energy businesses to continue to increase. Moreover, with the rapid growth of new infrastructure and new energy industries, the Company’s mining business will continue to benefit for a long time to come.
The Company deserves a valuation premium, as the Company is a world leader in infrastructure engineering construction and manufacturing of infrastructure components and construction equipment, and has also gradually seen results in its transformation and upgrade to a comprehensive enterprise group as "Investor + Contractor + Operator". However, current valuation range given by the market is at a 15-year low; there is huge room for revaluation.
Catalysts: 1) Increase in fiscal and monetary policy support from the government, and 2) overseas epidemic prevention measures gradually being lifted, and the construction of Belt and Road initiatives will accelerate.
Risks: 1) Overheated economy might cause inflation exceeding expectations, 2) policy tightening, 3) infrastructure investment might finish lower than expected, and 4) local epidemic situation might see fluctuation.