J&T’s parcel volume growth in 3Q25 reached 23% YoY, driven by outstandinggrowth of 79% in SEA. While the parcel volume growth in China slowed to 10%due to the “anti-involution” campaign, it was alongside a rebound of ASP. Inview of the strong growth in SEA, we see upside to J&T’s full-year parcel volumegrowth guidance (+56% in SEA). We continue to like J&T, due to (1) theunmatched competitive edge and market share gain potential in SEA (32.8% in1H25), and (2) strong potential in New markets such as Brazil and the MiddleEast. We have left our SOTP-based TP unchanged at HK$13.4. Reiterate BUY.
　　Key takeaways from 3Q25 results and call:
Southeast Asia (SEA) volume +79% YoY to 2bn units. The growth isimpressive as it represents an acceleration from 50% YoY in 1Q25 and 66%YoY in 2Q25. Management mentioned that the growth was driven by boththe increase in penetration rate of e-commerce (key customers’ aggressivepromotion in Thailand and Vietnam), as well as J&T’s market share gains(as customers continue to look for low-cost logistics services).
　　China volume +10% YoY to 5.6bn units. The YoY growth rate slowed from15% in 2Q24, but is largely expected due to the “anti-involution” campaign.
　　Management revealed that J&T’s ASP recovery in 3Q25 was similar to theindustry trend. Besides, following the rising parcel ASP trend, customerswith low average order value (AOV) have been forced to exit from themarket.
　　New markets volume +48% YoY to 104mn units. The growth continuedto be driven by new customers. While J&T expects the upcoming growth inMexico will slow due to the increase in tariff, the growth in Brazil will likelymore than offset the negative impact. J&T maintains the full-year growthguidance of 40% for New markets.
　　Risks: 1) ASP pressure; 2) competition in new markets.