Impact: Positive to names with preventive/treatment therapeutics for flu
We think continuous media headline and academic publications, especially sequencing results from patients, would benefit companies with flu therapeutics. The companies include Guangzhou Pharma (874.HK) with Banlangeng and Peramivir, as well as Shineway (2877.HK) with Qingkailing and Shenmai. However, we think tangible benefit to P&L could be limited as 1) infected population is quite limited; 2) traditionally defined flu season is approaching the end of the cycle.
What’s New? NEJM article; H7N9 spreading to North
NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) just published an article highlighting potential risks of mutations in 3 exons of the H7N9 virus sequences. 3 mutations in 2 exons might have implications to be responsible for potential transmissions beyond birds, while 1 mutation in NA could be associated with drug resistance issues. While inconclusive, the discussions underlined potential risks for human-to-human transmission. Additionally, it was reported that 63 cases incurred with 14 deaths, and that H7N9 had penetrated Beijing.
What we are looking for: mutations and sequencing results
We still believe it is more likely H7N9 virus could have limited impact due to its lack of ability to transmit between mammals at present, even such possibility could not be excluded. We would be concerned 1) if sequencing results indicated more mutations among 5 exons responsible for transmission; 2) government stopped releasing sequencing results. That being said, we highlight that most of the deceased were elderly patients.