What happened
The worldwide PC market suffered its worst decline historically in 2013 which means there is only opportunity to improve, according to the latest shipment results from technology research firm IDC Inc. IDC said that PC shipments in 2013 fell by 10% from 2012 to 315mn units. Sales were equal to 2009’s shipment levels, but the rate of decline was the worst on record. In 4Q13, PC sales fell to 82.2mn units, a 5.6% drop from the 87.1mn PCs sold in the same period in 2012. It was the seventh-straight quarter that shipments fell, but IDC analysts said there are signs the market is starting to stabilize. Lenovo remained the top PC seller worldwide, with 15.3mn units sold in 4Q13, a 9.0% increase from 4Q12 and good enough for 18.6% of the market. Hewlett-Packard Co. HPQ remained in second with 13.8mn units and 16.8% market share, but HP’s sales fell 8.5% from a year ago. Dell, Acer Group and Asus rounded out the top five PC sellers worldwide.
Comments
Although PC shipments continued to decline globally in 4Q13, we increasingly believe markets (such as the US) have bottomed out as adjustments to the installed base slow. Still, strong growth in tablets continued to hamper PC growth in emerging markets, where “the first connected device for consumers is most likely a smartphone, and their first computing device is a tablet.”
We expect the decline in Ju Teng’s notebook shipments to narrow from -10.2% YoY in 2013E to -4% YoY in 2014E with the aggressive promotion of Intel and Microsoft’s 2-in-1 ultrabooks. The new ultrabook specification will further drive non-plastic material casing production which carries a higher GPM (20%+) than plastic casings (13~15%). The hybrid casing trend is expected to increase overall GPM to 19.0% and 20.8% in 2013E and 2014E respectively, and non-plastic casings will contribute 33%/46% of total revenue in 2013E and 2014E.