CHINA MERCHANTS BANK(03968.HK):EARNINGS GROWTH EXPECTED TO STILL BE GOOD IN 2022 "BUY"
The Company’s shareholders’ net profit was RMB119,922 mn, up 23.2% YoY in 2021, in line with market consensus expectations. In 2021, net interest income was RMB203.9 bn, up 10.2% YoY. Non-interest income increased by 21.1% YoY to RMB127.5 bn. The Company’s NPL ratio was 0.91% as at the end of 2021, down 0.16 ppts compared with the end of 2020.In 2021, the Company's impairment losses increased by 2.0% YoY. NPL coverage ratio climbed 46.19 ppts compared with the end of 2020 to 483.87%.
Retail finance business and wholesale finance business both recorded good growth in 2021. In 2021, the profit before tax from the retail finance business of the Company amounted to RMB76.949 bn, up 21.07% YoY; and the Company achieved profit before tax from wholesale finance of RMB61.354 bn, up 20.85% YoY.
In 2022, we expect that the Company's interest-earning assets will still grow at a relatively good pace and the Company's NIM to remain relatively stable.We expect the Company's net fee and commission income to still record relatively good growth. We project the Company's asset quality to remain relatively stable, and improve somewhat, and the Company's impairment losses will grow at a relatively slow pace. We expect EPS for FY22/ FY23/ FY24 to grow YoY by 13.9%/ 15.1%/ 14.4% to RMB5.253/ RMB6.044/ RMB6.913, respectively. We maintain our "Buy" rating. We revise up our TP to HK$83.36 for the Company, equivalent to 12.9x FY22 PER, 11.2x FY23 PER, 9.8x FY24 PER, 2.1x FY22 PBR, 1.8x FY23 PBR and 1.6x FY24 PBR.