FY15 results in line show resilient rental in HK and goodgrowth in rental and property sales in China
Operating challenges remain from slowing HK retail sales butpartly mitigated by growth from China businesses
We have a Hold rating and a target price of HKD44
Resilient HK retail rental in FY15 but growth momentum slowing: In FY15, HarbourCity (HC)/Times Square (TS) in HK delivered continuing retail rental growth, up +5%/+7%y-o-y, albeit a slowdown from +7%/+9% y-o-y in 1H15. Management believes weaknessin HK retail is likely to be a multi-year story, although it still achieved 10-20% rentalreversions for retail leases recently committed. Wharf will also work proactively to drivebusinesses during tough times. Amid slowing retail sales in HK, we expect ongoingoperating challenges for HC and TS, including pressure on retail sales (-12% /-13% y-o-yat HC/TS in 2015 vs -7%/-10% in 1H15) and higher occupancy costs (16%/20% in FY15at HC/TS). Improved visibility on Wharf’s HK retail rental growth trends from stabilisingretail sales will likely be needed to narrow the stock’s 57% NAV discount.
Good momentum in China helps offset slowing rental growth in HK: China rental inFY15 was well supported by the strong performance of Chengdu IFS, which saw +25%y-o-y growth in retail revenue, +55% in retail sales and 100% occupancy. Wharf alsomade progress with the pre-leasing of Changsha IFS and Chongqing IFS, of which over75%/85% of retail area is under negotiation (vs over 30%/60% as of August 2015) aheadof openings in 2017. Separately, Wharf achieved contracted sales of RMB26bn in Chinain FY15, up 21% y-o-y and 21% ahead of target, while operating profits from Chinaproperty sales (including JV and associates) rose 51% y-o-y in FY15. Wharf has acontracted sales target of RMB24bn for FY16.
FY15 results in line: Wharf reported FY15 underlying earnings of HKD10,969m, up 5%y-o-y, reflecting higher net rental growth of 6% and 25% y-o-y in HK and China as well asincreased development earnings in China. Wharf declared a second interim DPS ofHKD1.35, bringing full year DPS to HKD1.90, up 5% y-o-y and implying a 4.4% dividendyield. Wharf reported largely steady h-o-h book NAV of HKD101.53 as of end-2015,reflecting a 1% h-o-h revaluation gain on our estimates, offset by a decrease in exchangeand investment reserves. Gearing improved to 14.9% as of end-2015 (-4.7pp h-o-h).Wharf also announced a strategic review of the communications/ media businesses(which represents 1% of Group operating profit).
We have a Hold rating and target price of HKD44: Our target price is based on a 56%target discount (or 1.5 standard deviations below Wharf’s historical average) to our NAVof HKD101. Catalysts could arise from stabilising retail sales and/or resilient office rentalin HK. Key downside risks include higher HK commercial cap rates and/or lower-thanexpectedretail rental achieved. Key upside risks include resilient retail rental in HK and astrong ramp-up in Wharf’s China malls.