POLY PROPERTY {Ticker: 0119.HK, Closing Price: 4.86 HKD, Target Price: 7.82 HKD, Recommendation: Buy}
Poly Property 1H13 net profit surged 83% YoY to HK$1,959mn. Excluding fair value gain on IP, we estimate that the core profit boosted by 40% YoY to HK$1.41bn. Revenue up 60% YoY to HK$10.4bn. EPS increased by 82% to HK$54.07 cents. No interim dividend was declared. Gross profit margin dropped by 5.4ppt to 31.2% while core margin edged down by 3.4ppt to 11.3%.
Average borrowing cost dropped by 0.6ppt
Poly’s net gearing stays at 82.7%, versus 84.7% at end-12. The financial structure is enhanced through refinancing with a USD$500mn 5-year USD bond (coupon rate 4.75%) during May-13 and it strives to reduce the proportion of trust loan. The average borrowing cost edged down by 0.6ppt to 7.8%. In particular, about 39% of debt is due within 1 year and the proportion of fixed vs floating interest loans is approximately 3:7. Cash balance with pledged deposits surged by 62% to HK$24.8bn.
1H13 newly commenced GFA 1.2mn sqm
During 1H13, the company newly commenced 12 projects with GFA of about 1.2mn sqm and a total 45 projects under construction with a GFA of 11.3mn sqm. The major commencements include Shanghai, Suzhou, Nanning and Yantai. 42 projects were launched for sales during the period. The five projects in Jinan, Suzhou, Hainan and Kunming were debut, together with an affordable housing project launched in Shanghai. Their first project in Hainan – Hainan Poly Peninsula No. 1 received good market response where some 90% of the 351 units offered were subscribed in the first day. Its Jinan Poly Elegant Garden also recorded sales of over Rmb500mn upon its launch day.
7M13 contracted sales on track
Poly Property 7M13 contracted sales reached Rmb16.8bn with contracted area of 1.63mn sqm, up 31% YoY and 18% YoY, respectively. It completed 65% of the annual contracted sales target. In 1H13, the sales mainly come from Shanghai (22%), Guangzhou/Foshan (13%), Nanning (11%), Wuhan (8%) and Liuzhou/ Kunming/ Chongqing (7%). To replenish its land consumption, Poly has acquired five new land parcels with a total GFA of 2.75mn sqm in Foshan, Guiyang, Wuhan, Nanning and Yantai.
Undemanding valuation
Poly now trades at undemanding valuation 56% NAV discount, 5.9x 2013E PE and 0.6x PB. We continue to expect NAV & PB discount narrowing on the back of faster sales and stable financial condition. Our TP of HK$7.82 is based on a 30% NAV discount. Risk: unexpected economic volatility and unexpectedly harsh government tightening measures.