Maintain "Buy" and raise TP to HK$21.00. Considering that 1) Geely Automobile (“Geely”, or the “Company”) will further accelerate the progress of its NEV business, with 2025 a big year of the Company’s new car launch, thereby Geely is expected to further accelerate the transformation of NEVs to improve profitability; 2) the product matrix has been further strengthened, and Zeekr and Galaxy will work together with Lynk & Co to jointly push the sales of mid-to-high-end brands to a higher level; and; 3) the Company's overseas sales continue to make breakthroughs, and it sells cars in markets on all continents around the world (except North America), we forecast Geely’s EPS in 2025F-2027F to RMB1.355 (+0.450)/ RMB1.610 (+0.373)/ RMB1.905 (newly added). We give the Company 14.5x 2025F PER, corresponding to a TP of HK$21.00, and maintain "Buy" rating.
　　Revenue hit record high, GPM grew yoy; NEV strategy continued to reap results. The Company's 2024 revenue rose by 34.0% yoy to RMB240.2 bn. GPM grew by 0.6 ppts yoy to 15.9%. During the period, net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB16.63 bn, up 213.3% yoy. The Company's annual NEV penetration rate increased by 11.4 ppts to 40.8%. Revenue per vehicle jumped to RMB107,376, a yoy increase of 2.5%, benefiting from the rapid growth in sales of mid-to-high-end NEVs. Geely's NEV strategy in 2024 continued to reap results, with annual sales of high-end Zeekr brand reaching 222,123 units, up 87.2% yoy.
　　The sales of the Galaxy Series was extremely strong, with annual sales reaching 361,846 units. The Galaxy Series has quickly become a mid-to-high-end brand.
　　New vehicle cycle awaits; the continued sales breakthroughs of mid-to-high-end brands will continue to boost the Company's NEV transformation. The annual NEV penetration rate is expected to hit 50.0%. In 2025, in terms of brands, 1) Geely brand: in Mar., Galaxy Xingyao 8 (Mid-to-large PHEV sedan) was just launched; 2 SUVs and 2 sedans will be launched later; 2) Zeekr brand: Zeekr 007 GT will be launched in Apr., and Zeekr 9X and a medium-to-large PHEV SUV will be launched in 2H2025; 3) Lynk & Co brand, Lynk & Co 900EM-P SUV and medium-to-large EM-P sedan will be launched. The Company's product matrix will be further improved, and the Company's strategy of vigorously developing mid-to-high-end brands continues to be successful.
　　Coupled with Geely's accelerated breakthrough in intelligentization and overseas sales, the Company’s business is expected to brace a golden new chapter.
　　In 2025, Geely's overseas sales are expected to accelerate across the board, with the three major brands strategically entering different markets. Geely's export sales showed considerably strong, and it has entered key global markets such as the Middle East, Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America and Africa. In 2024, the average monthly export sales were 33,660 units, a yoy increase of 47.4%. In 2025, Geely will mainly focus on the sales in APAC and the Middle East; the mid-to-high-end brands, Zeekr and Galaxy will open direct stores in most of Europe; Lynk & Co covers most markets in Latin America. The orderly layout of overseas sales stores will further promote the high growth of Geely’s export sales in 2025.
　　Risks: 1) domestic industry competition may exceed expectations; 2) overseas market expansion may fall short of expectations; and 3) geopolitics may lead to a slowdown in business expansion.