TELEVISION BROADCASTS ALERT(0511.HK):PROFIT WARNING FOR 2016 - LIKELY A TROUGH YEAR MAINTAINING BUY
Deutsche Bank's view
In our model, we expect 40% decline in NP for 2016, including an exceptionalgain of HKD333m. NP guidance from the announcement is 10-15% lower thanour forecast. We believe the key difference is that it experienced a 13% declinein broadcasting segment, vs. our estimate of 11%. Based on the 13% declinefor 2016, it implies a 15% decline in segment sales in 2H16, vs. 1H's 11% fall.
While NP for 2016 was lower than expected, we believe the company willmaintain its absolute dividend payout of HKD2.6 for the full year, given itsstrong net cash position. We also believe that its core profit bottomed out in2016. With HK retail sales decline narrowing in the recent months, we expectadex to see a recovery in 2017. Meanwhile, its OTT business has been doingwell with the number of users for my TV SUPER exceeding 2m, and muchbetter than its 1.4m target for November 2017. Thus, start-up losses willnarrow to HKD50m (from HKD100m)。 We, thus, maintain our Buyrecommendation.