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CHINA COMMUNICATIONS SERVICES(00552.HK):DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE TO DRIVE GROWTH "ACCUMULATE"

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2023-03-31
  We maintain the investment rating as "Accumulate" and raise TP to HK$4.50. We forecast FY23-FY25 EPS to be RMB0.528/ RMB0.574/ RMB0.623, respectively. Given the better-than-expected gross margin improvement on non-operator market, we raise our TP, and maintain the investment rating as "Accumulate".
  We expect the Company's earnings in 2023 to grow by mid-to-high single-digit percentage and dividend payout growth to be double-digit percentage. As three major operators all plan to reduce CAPEX in network business in 2023, we expect the Company’s business in network construction to be under pressure; however, the three major operators are still vigorously investing in computing power networks, thus the Company still has large room for development in construction, operation and maintenance of data centers.Currently, the gross margin of the non-operator market is still lower than that of the operator market, but the gap between the two has narrowed, and we expect the gross margin of the non-operator market still has room for improvement. Overall, we expect that profit growth will be larger than revenue growth. In addition, we expect the Company to continue raising its dividend payout ratio, and dividend payout ratio in 2023 to be 42%.
  We expect that the Company's second growth curve may exceed market expectations. We expect that cloud and AI will both bring huge market space for the digital infrastructure industry. We can see that the Company is continuously enhancing its technology and innovation capabilities to drive the second curve of business growth. Thus, we expect that the Company's second growth curve may exceed market expectations.
  Catalysts: Increase in dividend payout ratio; better-than-expected profitability of non-operator market.
  Risks: Slower-than-expected growth of ACO business; weaker-than-expected demand from non-operator customers.

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