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LK TECH(00558.HK):LARGE DIE-CASTING MACHINE BUSINESS MAINTAINED RAPID GROWTH; LONG-TERM

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2022-12-08
  Due to the lower-than-expected performance, we lower TP to HK$11.90, but maintain "Buy" rating. We forecast the Company's shareholders' net profit in FY23/ FY24/ FY25 to increase YoY by -4.3%, 36.4%, and 29.8%, respectively. We forecast earnings per share in FY23/ FY24/ FY25 to be HK$0.437, HK$0.596, and HK$0.773, respectively. Our TP is based on FY24 PER of 20x.
  The Company's short-term operations remains under pressure, but unfavorable factors are fading. The Company's 1HFY23 injection molding machine business revenue fell 16% YoY, and operating profit margin dropped to 3.8%, which significantly dragged down the Company's performance.
  However, with adjustments in China's macro policy, the injection molding machine business and small die-casting machine business will improve in 2HFY23. In addition, decline in raw material prices will benefit the Company’s gross profit margin.
  The revenue share of large die-casting machines will increase gradually, and the Company's long-term growth logic remains unchanged.
  According to our calculations on the proportion of revenue and gross profit margin of several types of die-casting machines, we believe that as demand for large and super-large die-casting machines increases in the future, the Company's revenue will maintain double-digit growth and gross profit margin will continue to improve. The Company's long-term growth logic remains unchanged.
  Catalysts: Strong demand for super-large die-casting machines; continuous breakthroughs in the single-piece die-casting technology; rapid growth in the Company’s CNC business.

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