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KERRY LOGISTICS NETWORK(00636.HK):1H17 RESULTS SLIGHTLY MISS EXPECTATION DUE TO SLUGGISH ASSOCIATES

中国国际金融股份有限公司2017-09-01
  1H17 results miss expectation
  Kerry Logistics Network announced its 1H17 results: revenuewas HK$13.7bn, up 31% YoY; net profit was HK$788mn orHK$0.46 per share, up 11% YoY, in line with estimates. Excludingfair value gains, core operating profit was HK$1bn, up 10% YoYwhile core net profit was HK$576mn, up only 5% YoY, missingexpectation. Core NP growth was mainly dragged by sluggishperformance of associates (down 52% YoY)。 The company hasdecided to pay an interim dividend of HK$0.08 per share.
  By segment: 1) Logistics (LOP) revenue +13% to HK$5.8bnwith segment profit +11% to HK$622mn, but margin -0.2ppt.Profit of HK was up 9% YoY while Mainland China -1% YoY andTaiwan -7% YoY. Asia (excluding Greater China) grew 56% YoY.
  2) HK warehousing revenue +3% to HK$263mn with segmentprofit +8% to HK$262mn and margin +4.6ppt. 3) IFF revenueincreased 51% to HK$7.6bn and segment profit increased 7% toHK$222mn mainly driven by contribution from APEX.
  Trends to watch
  We expect a better 2H: 1) freight rates are stabilizing and costpressure is being passed on to customers; 2) 2Q sawimprovement.
  Disposing of non-core assets: the group will divest its entire15% interest in Asia Airfreight Terminal Company. Conditionsprecedent of the transaction will be satisfied in 3Q17.
  Earnings forecast
  Considering higher-than-expected fair value gains, wemaintain our earnings forecast but cut our 2017 core netprofit growth forecast from 11.6% YoY to 8.1% YoY.
  Valuation and recommendation
  The stock is trading at 15.8x 2017e core net profit. Wemaintain our BUY rating and HK$13.50 target price,implying 20.97% upside room from the current price.
  Risks: Freight rates surge again; macroeconomic slowdown.

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