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HUANENG POWER INTERNATIONAL(00902.HK) :1Q20 POWER OUTPUT DOWN 18.5%; IMPACT ON EARNINGS LIMITED

中国国际金融股份有限公司2020-04-16
  What's new
  Huaneng’s domestic power plants recorded power output and salesvolume of 84.7bn kWh (-18.5% YoY) and 80.7bn kWh (-17.9% YoY) in1Q20. Average tariff rose 0.11% YoY to Rmb422.4/MWh. Directpower sales reached 26.1bn kWh, accounting for 33.3% of totalpower sales (-6.3ppt YoY)。
  Comments
  Huaneng’s 1Q20 power output volume fell 18.5% YoY, as powerconsumption slowed due to COVID-19, and the firm had higherexposure to thermal power as well as central and eastern China.
The firm’s power output saw the sharpest decline in Hubei(-37% YoY), Henan (-33% YoY) and Guangdong (-33% YoY), whileit maintained double-digit growth in Guangxi (+82% YoY) andYunnan (+59% YoY)。
Power output from alternative energies improved in 1Q20,driven by higher installed capacity and priority access to thepower grid, with that of wind power and solar power up 15%and 14%. Meanwhile, output of coal-fired and gas-firedgenerators declined 20% and 4% YoY due to COVID-19 andcompetition from other power sources.
  Rising power tariff and falling coal prices to offset the negative fromlower power volume; 1Q20 earnings to likely drop slightly. 1Q20average tariff rose 0.11% YoY, and we estimate power tariff (excl. tax)rose 3% YoY given the lower VAT rate. In addition, we expect unit fuelcost to decline 6% YoY in 1Q20, given the falling coal prices (spot coalprice down 7% YoY)。 We expect positives from power tariff and coalprices to offset the negatives from falling volume, and estimate that1Q20 earnings may drop slightly by 4%.
  Valuation and recommendation
  We keep earnings forecast unchanged. Huaneng A-shares are tradingat 0.7x 2020e and 0.7x 2021e P/B, and H-shares at 0.4x and 0.4x P/B.
  Maintain OUTPERFORM on A-shares and H-shares with TPs atRmb8.29 (1.4x 2020e and 1.4x 2021e P/B with 96% upside) andHK$6.00 (0.9x 2020e and 0.9x 2021e P/B with 119% upside)。
  Risks
  Lower-than-expected decline in coal prices; falling power tariffs.

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