China Construction Bank (CCB) representatives attended our Access Chinaconference today. The key takeaways are as follows:
On loan and asset expansion, the bank will continue to support infrastructureand mortgages in 2017 and expects a more balanced mix between the two.Specifically on infrastructure lending, CCB will focus on “One Belt, One-Road” projects, railways and affordable housing construction. On mortgages,CCB will continue to support demand for self-usage, while constraininglending to individuals for investment/speculation purposes.
On NIM: management expects NIM to stabilize in 2017, which is attributableto several factors: 1) while loan re-pricing as a result of the last six interestrate cuts has completed, the re-pricing of long-term deposits has not yet fullycompleted, which is positive for NIM; 2) its baseline assumption is that therewill be no more interest rate cuts by the PBOC; 3) returns on personalmortgages are still attractive; and 4) the VAT impact, which is limited.
On asset quality: management views NPL formation as having peaked andexpects an improvement in asset quality trends. This is a function of twofactors: 1) an improving credit mix toward lower-risk sectors, such asinfrastructure and personal mortgages, while scaling back exposure toovercapacity and high-energy consuming sectors; and 2) improving operationand cash flow of higher-risk customers. As such, credit costs are likely totrend lower. At the same time, the bank aims to maintain the provisioncoverage ratio at around the 150% requirement.
On debt-to-equity swaps (DES), CCB will remain selective in choosingunderlying corporates i.e., leading corporates in each sector with a strongmarket outlook which run into only temporary difficulties. Thus, DES have tobe done on a case-by-case basis and the bank does not have an overall quotafor this. As of now, CCB has signed strategic DES contracts worthRmb100bn. Elsewhere, underlying corporates are mainly using swappedequity proceeds to pay down high-cost debts.