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FUTURE LAND(1030.HK):POTENTIAL PRIVATIZATION;REAFFIRMING TOPPICK ON STRONG GROWTH LOW VALUATION

德意志银行股份有限公司2017-07-11
  Potential privatization; reaffirming top-pick
  Before market-open on Jul 10, Future Land applied for a trading halt on thepending announcement of potential privatization of the company (no detail hasbeen disclosed and the company remains suspended for trading)。 Future Landhas been our top-pick among small-caps since our initiation in Mar 17. We likeits strong earnings growth (49% CAGR in FY17-19F) driven by strong sales(+104%/+33% yoy in 2016/2017F) and margin expansion. It is trading at 4.3xP/E and a 57% discount to NAV (much cheaper than sector average of 6.7x P/Eand 36% discount to NAV)。 We recommend investors to buy if there is a GOand opening price below the offer price, considering its deep NAV discount.
  Strong sales to continue; aggressive land acquisition equals 33% of end-2016landbank
  Future Land’s contracted sales continue to be strong, and it has achievedRMB49.1bn in 1H17 (+75% yoy, 58% completion of its RMB85bn target),despite its sales rallying 104% yoy in 2016. We expect it to achieve full-yearsales of RMB86.8bn (+33% yoy), with T1/T2/T3 cities accounting for18%/47%/35%, respectively. Also, the company continues to be aggressive onland acquisitions and it has acquired a total of 11.8mn sqm GFA with a totalland cost of about RMB32.7bn in 5M17. This is equivalent to 79% of its 5M17contracted sales value and 33% of its end-2016 landbank of 35.3mn sqm.Among the land acquisitions, 51% is from T1/T2 cities.
  Strong earnings growth, but low valuation; key risks
Driven by its strong sales growth, we expect the company to deliver a 49%earnings CAGR in the next three years with gross margin expanding to 25-26%(vs. 23.4% in FY16)。 We estimate end-FY17F NAV of HKD6.56/share (currentprice implying a 57% NAV discount) even without factoring in its YTD landacquisitions. Also, its current valuation is at a ~50% discount to its A-share(601155 CH), despite its strong share price performance of 77% YTD. Wereaffirm Future Land as our top-pick among small-caps (since our initiation inMarch 2017)。 Our TP is based on a 50% discount to our estimated end-FY17FNAV. The stock now trades at 4.3x FY18F P/E and 57% discount to NAV (vs.sector average of 6.7x P/E and 36% discount to NAV)。 Key risks are: 1) highergearing makes it more vulnerable to credit tightening; 2) slower sales growth.

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