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DONGFANG ELECTRIC(01072.HK):MORE RENEWABLES INVESTMENT IN NEXT DECADE MAINTAIN"BUY"

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2020-12-24
Nationwide power sector investment in 1-1 1M2020 reached RMB809.9bn, up YoY by 23.0%。Of which, power engineering investment went upYoY by 68.2% to RMB415.7 bn while power grid investment was down YoYby 4.2% to RMB394.2 bn. During the period, thermal power investment wasdown 15.3% YoY, while investment in hydro, nuclear and wind powersurged YoY by 33.0%,7.5% and 141.1%,respectively. Investment in windpower in China in the first 11 months broke the previous historical record byhitting RMB215.1 bn, which nearly doubled from the RMB120 bn milestonerecorded back in 2015 (full year). We expect that the majority of powerengineering investment in China in next decade will focus on renewables.
Net earnings in the first 3 quarters of 2020 surged 29.6% YoY toRMB1,342 mn, in line with our expectation. The Company's net profitduring 1-3Q2020 met our expectation and was approximately 74.1% of ourcurrent full-year eamnings forecast for 2020. Quarterly earnings in 3Q2020went up YoY by 26.9% to RMB388 mn. The Company produced 17.94 GWof power equipment in 1-3Q2020, up YoY by 19.4%. New orders in1-3Q2020 surged YoY by 49.9% to RMB39.16 bn.
We reiterate the "Buy" investment rating and further raise our TP toHK$8.50. We remain positive on the outlook of Dongfang Electric. Our EPSestimates from 2020 to 2022 are RMB0.581, RMB0.757 and RMB0.923,respectively. The new TP corresponds to 12 .4x/ 9.5x/ 7.8x 2020-2022 PERor 0.7x/ 0.7x/ 0.7x 2020-2022 PBR, respectively..

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