CHEUNG KONG PROPERTY HOLDINGS(1113.HK):PROPOSED CENTURY LINK DISPOSAL ANNOUNCED;REITERATE CL BUY
Source of opportunity
On Oct 26, CKP announced that the consortium (50% CKP and 50% Li Ka Shing(Overseas) Foundation) has entered into a sale and purchase agreement todispose of Century Link, an office/retail complex with c.220k sqm GFA located inPudong New District in Shanghai, at an agreed property value of Rmb20bn(c.HK$23bn), or Rmb91.6k per sqm, for an initial consideration of Rmb15.3bn(HK$17.6bn), to a special purpose vehicle managed by ARA Asset Management.
Construction of this mixed-use development was just completed and is in theprocess of being fitted out. We see this disposal as in line with CKP's strategy totap into opportunities to monetize assets. Reiterate Buy (on CL), TP of HK$73.00.
Catalyst
Overall, we expect low-hanging fruit such as the sale of assets and moreinvestor-friendly capital management to be undertaken in the near term.
Back in August, there was news regarding potential bidders of The Center(attr. 1.2mn sq ft office), while CKP also has hiked its 1H16 DPS by 9% yoyamid higher recurring cash flow and conducted HK$662mn in sharebuybacks YTD. We believe CKP has the resources (at just a 2.5% net debtposition as of 1H16) for active capital management and the flexibility to lookfor projects with the potential to grow recurring income.
Valuation
CKP thinks this transaction should be completed around 2017 or 2018,depending on the fulfilment of certain terms and conditions, and expects tobook a one-off post-tax disposal gain of approx. HK$6.2bn, vs. our base case2017E/18E underlying earnings of HK$16.8/18.4bn, respectively. While we takeno view on the outcome of this proposed transaction, for illustrative purposeswe calculate it would add 1.2% to our 2017E NAV (details on p. 3)。 Our 12mNAV-based TP of HK$73.00 (unchanged) is set at a 25% disc. to HK$97.24FY17E NAV. We make no changes to our model at this time. Stay Buy (on CL)。
Key risks
Worse-than-expected conditions for asset monetization and/or M&A.
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