AGRI. BANK OF CHINA(1288.HK):2Q16 – FLAT EARNINGS BUT DECLINING RETAIL PROFIT IS THE KEY DISAPPOINTMENT
Agricultural Bank of China (ABC) reported 2Q16 results, with net profit ofRmb50.5bn, up 0.5% yoy. Similar to CCB, the results were dragged by weakrevenue (down 9% yoy) as a result of slow asset growth and the VAT impact,offset by better cost control and lower credit costs. The bank saw a slowerNPL formation rate in the first half, with continuing efforts in optimizing theloan portfolio. Nevertheless, in contrast with peers, ABC's retail banking PBTdropped by 24% yoy in 1H16 on slowing fee income and a higher provisioncharge on weaker retail asset quality. Among the Big Four, CCB and ABC havereported 2Q16 results and CCB delivered a relatively stronger set of results.
Retail banking segment performance lagging peersABC's retail segment PPOP recorded no growth yoy in 1H16 (vs. 19% yoy forCCB and 26% yoy for CMB), primarily due to a decline in net interest income of2% yoy and slowed retail fee growth of 3% yoy. This is probably a reflection ofits slowed retail banking business. For example, ABC's WMP balance actuallydeclined by 2% hoh in the first half to Rmb1.55tr. The bank also set aside aRmb12.9bn provision charge for retail loans, equivalent to an 89bps credit cost(2H15: 27bps)。 The higher provision was probably due to the weaker assetquality of retail business loans (NPL ratio up 68bps hoh to 4.37%) and creditcard overdrafts (NPL ratio up 25bps to 2.98%)。 As a result, retail PBT droppedby 24% yoy in 1H16 to account for 35% of the group's (vs. 45% in 1H15)。
Asset quality: slowing NPL formation albeit rising overdueThe bank's NPL formation ratio declined to 111bps in 1H16, compared with119bps in 1H15 and 180bps in 2H15, in our estimates. As a result, the NPLratio nudged up only 1bp from end-2015 to 2.40%. However, overdue loansbeyond 90 days grew by 13% hoh to account for 2.18% of total loans (vs.
2.03% at end-2015)。 In 2Q16, the bank set aside 80bps credit cost, flat qoq anddown 2bps yoy, leading to a lower NPL coverage ratio of 178% at end-June.
2Q16 – Running the numbers
PPOP declined 3.3% yoy due to NIM compression of 52bps yoy (15bpsqoq), offset by 18% yoy drop in expenses and net fee income of 7.4% yoy.
Capital stayed relatively weaker than for the other Big Four banks, withreported CET1 and CAR of 10.06% and 12.81% in 2Q16. Managementstated during the briefing today that there is no imminent need to raisetier-1 capital for now and it plans to issue up to Rmb80bn tier-2 securities.
The bank recorded the slowest asset growth (+7.0% yoy) since the IPO.
Corporate loans grew by only 1% yoy as the bank scaled back riskiersectors, i.e. wholesale and retail (-14% yoy), real estate (-14%), mining(-7%) and manufacturing (-6%)。
ABC purchased Rmb465bn of municipal bonds in 1H16, constituting a13% market share. The bank views municipal bonds as attractiveinvestments, given a stronger net return on RWA at 1.12% (loans: 0.75%)。