4Q25 same-store GMV growth looks robust, and by December 2025, its total store count should be 13k (up 1.8k during 2H25). For 2026, we now assume LSD% same-store GMV YoY decrease and upper 20s-ish% avg. store count YoY increase. From the long-term perspective, we are still confident that Guming’s growth logic remains intact. Reiterate BUY and our TP implies 23x 26E P/E.
Key Factors for Rating
Market updates: Overall, the growth of China’s freshly-made (“FM”) beverage store industry is slowing down from Sep. 2025, in terms of same-store GMV and store operating profit. For instance, it takes longer for new franchisees to cover their initial investments in general. Meanwhile, the industry is seeing divergence among different brands. Top performers include “Good me”, with approximately 1.8 thousand net store additions for 2H25, while other mid-priced brands (e.g. ChaPanda) are faced with increasing store closure pressures. Going forward, in 2026, same-store GMV growth is less visible in general, on high base comps.
Still bullish on Guming’s growth story, as well as its greater earnings visibility ahead. 4Q25 feedbacks are positive, with DD% same-store GMV YoY growth. In 2026, Guming is likely to deliver 1) more stable same-store GMV on a YoY basis (potential drivers include: incremental cup volume from new SKUs/ sub-categories such as coffee, store operating hours extension, enhanced dinein experience) and 2) accelerated store count growth (i.e. at least 3.0 thousand net store additions in 2026). Long-term logic stays intact – we esp. like its solid execution of regional densification/penetration strategy, disciplined management of franchisees, superior supply-chain/organisational capabilities, and diversified product matrix with continuous innovation.
Key Risks for Rating
Major risks: 1) same-store GMV pressure, esp. from 3Q26, 2) intensified market competition, and 3) slower-than-expected store network densification in the key operating regions.
Valuation
We revised up our top-line forecasts for 2025-27 by 13%-16%, mainly factoring in 1) near-term cup volume surge in 2H25 (which could be relatively stable from 2026) and 2) faster-than-expected store opening pace from 2026. Adjusted NPM is likely to rise by 1.1/1.0ppt YoY in 2025-26 on efficiency gain. Thus, we revised up our adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-27 by 19%-23%, implying a CAGR of 33% from 2024 to 2027.
Reiterate BUY and continue to list Guming as one of our top picks for consumer services (restaurant & catering) sector. Our TP is unchanged at HK$30.80, equiv. to 23x 26E P/E. We reckon its current 26E PEG (recurring) of 0.8x is attractive.