What's new
In October-November 2021, we participated in the opening ceremony of the Ocumension Therapeutics factory in Suzhou, and attended its 4Q21 investors meeting. We believe that the factory will reduce production costs and that Ocumension will benefit from its platform advantages in the ophthalmic field.
Comments
Suzhou factory completed; to start production soon. We believe that the factory, which complies with, China, US and EU GMP standards will reduce production costs.
Targets ophthalmic drug market; pipeline continues to enrich.
Ocumension had 20 drugs in its portfolio as of November 16, 2021.
Major progress in pipeline development. Ocumension has announced that the new drug application for OT-401 was accepted and that the firm expects the drug to be approved by February 2022 and that OT-101 was approved for Phase III clinical trials in the US, China, and the UK respectively in February, April, and July 2021. On October 16, Ocumension launched its Real World Study (RWS) in the Boao Pilot Zone.
Valuation and recommendation
We maintain our 2021 and 2022 EPS forecasts at losses of Rmb0.69 and Rmb0.69. Given the decline in sector valuation, we keep OUTPERFORM rating but lower our DCF-based TP 14.3% to HK$24.00, offering 50.4% upside.
Risks
New launch disappoints; sales of drug candidates disappoint.