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CHINA REINSURANCE GROUP(01508.HK):MIXED RESULTS

中国国际金融股份有限公司2017-03-31
  Results in line with expectations
  China Reinsurance Group announced 2016 results: revenue wasRmb86.7bn, up 7.8% YoY; net profit was Rmb5.1bn, down 32%YoY, or Rmb0.12 per share. Life Re NBV up 11% YoY. Book valueup 3% while group EV up 1% HoH. P&C Re COR deteriorated30bp to 99.2%, slightly better than consensus. Primary P&C CORimproved 150bp to 99.8%, worse than consensus. DPS increased4% to Rmb0.048, 20% above consensus and a generous 40%payout.
  Trends to watch
  Strong momentum in life Re continues. GPW +37% YoY,driven by domestic protection and savings. Financial reinsurancemuted in 2H probably due to product upgrades. Net profits fell46% YoY implying earnings recovery in 2H16.
  P&C Re remained pressured. 2H16 GPW fell 32% mainlydriven by a 58% scale-back in auto. The decline in auto cessionunder C-ROSS continues; we expect premium growth to bottomout in 2017.
  Fast top line growth in Primary P&C. The 20% GPW growth(or 22% in 2H) outperformed peers, helped by fast growth inauto, surety and A&H. COR improved 2.2ppt to 102% in 2H16but was still an underwriting loss. Product mix slightly improved.
  Earnings forecast
  We lower our 2017 earnings forecast by 8% fromRmb0.18 to Rmb0.15 per share.
  Valuation and recommendation
  The stock is trading at 0.8x 2017e P/EV. We maintain our BUYrating and HK$2.20 target price, implying 21.55% upside roomfrom the current price.
  Risks
  Unexpected catastrophes or major accidentsE

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