CHINA REINSURANCE GROUP(01508.HK):1H17 NET PROFITS BEAT CONSENSUS DRIVEN BY STRONG INVESTMENT
1H17 results beat expectation
China Reinsurance Group announced its 1H17 results: revenuewas Rmb68bn, up 31% YoY; net profit was Rmb2.95bn orRmb0.07 per share, up 9% YoY. Book value rose 2% HoH. GroupEV grew 4% HoH.
Trends to watch
Net profits growth driven by strong investment. Netprofits grew 9% YoY, mainly driven by the strong 29% growth ofinvestment income (total investment yield +1ppt to 5.7%)。
Strong growth in Life Re. Life Re’s premiums grew 64%,mainly driven by strong growth of domestic saving and financereinsurance products.
P&C Re growth picked up; COR improved. P&C Re’spremiums growth returned to positive territory (+3% in 1H17 vs.
-13% in 1H16), indicating the impact on auto insurance’s cessionratio as C-ROSS may have weakened marginally. COR improvedby 0.3ppt, helped by 4.7ppt improvement in overseas business’sloss ratio.
Continent’s COR slightly rose. Continent’s premiums grew18% YoY, higher than sector, mainly driven by strong growth ofguarantee, A&H and agriculture insurance. COR rose 1.0ppt to98.2%, mainly due to a rising loss ratio.
Earnings forecast
We maintain our earnings forecast for FY17/18.
Valuation and recommendation
The stock is trading at 0.8x 2017e PEV. We maintain our HOLDrating and HK$2.10 target price, implying 15.38% upside roomfrom the current price.
Risks
Downside risks: unexpected catastrophes or major accidents;upside risks: better-than-expected equity market movement.