Mobvista delivered largely in-line FY22 results, despite global macro challenges and inflation. 1Q23E would be a solid start with effective expansion in midcore & hardcore game vertical. We keep positive on its FY23E reacceleration (forecasting rev +25% YoY in FY23E), boosted by: 1) vertical expansion; 2) upcoming launch of ROAS mode; and 3) cooperation with Google. Coupled with narrowing loss of Reyun, lighter incentives and stabilized R&D, we expect FY23E margin enhancement to continue (forecasting adj. NP +138% YoY in FY23E)。 We keep our financials forecast unchanged. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.3 (1.2x/1.0x FY23/24E P/S, or 58x/40x FY23/24E P/E, with 31% earnings CAGR in FY23-25E)。
FY22 results largely in-line. Despite challenging global macro, Mobvista delivered in-line FY22 results. Rev grew 18% YoY (in-line with our forecast), with adj. net loss of US$9.7mn (vs. our estimate of US$10.9mn)。 Mintegral +44% YoY attributable to strong momentum in game vertical (+42% YoY), partially offset by soft e-commerce (-1.4% YoY)。 Nativex declined 68% YoY in FY22 as Mobvista further shifted towards programmatic ads. Thanks to disciplined traffic subsidies, along with rapid growth of the Mintegal, blended GPM +3.7ppts to 19.8% (0.2ppt above our estimate)。
Reacceleration in sight with solid 1Q23E. We are positive on its 1Q23E momentum (forecasting rev +13% YoY), supported by effective expansion in midcore & hardcore game vertical. Looking into 2023E, we see high visibility for Mobvista to reaccelerate with 25% rev growth, boosted by: 1) continuous vertical expansion, with rising hardcore games budget; 2) upcoming launch of ROAS mode; 3) better targeting with algorithm optimization; and 4) further upside from cooperation with Google.
Margin enhancement ahead. Mgmt. emphasized on margin expansion target, and we forecast its bottom line +138% YoY in FY23E, with GP +25% YoY. Mobvista would improve its margin with: 1) higher ads efficiency with lighter incentives; 2) R&D investment to stabilize; and 3) narrowing loss of Reyun. Meanwhile, its SaaS ecosystem (with GA, Reyun, and SpotMax), will bring more synergies with Mintegral ads in the long run.
Maintain BUY. We maintain our forecast unchanged, with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.3 (by assigning 30x FY23E P/E to ad-tech biz and 3.3x FY23E P/S to mar-tech biz)。 Key catalysts: 1) solid 1Q23E; 2) cooperation with Google; and 3) upcoming launch of ROAS mode.