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LI AUTO-W(2015.HK):BOTTOMING PROCESS CONTINUES UNDER SHORT-TERM PRESSURE WHILE NEW PRODUCTS AND AI STRATEGY LEAD A LONG-TERM INFLECTION POINT

中信建投证券股份有限公司2026-04-29
Key takeaway
4Q25 total revenue was RMB28.78bn, YoY/QoQ -35%/+5.2%; net profit was RMB20mn, YoY -99.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit was RMB270mn, YoY -93.2% and turned profitable QoQ; 4Q25 gross margin was 17.8%, YoY/QoQ -2.5pcts/+1.5pcts. Revenue in 2025 was RMB112.3bn, YoY -22.3%, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB1.1bn, YoY -85.8%, and gross margin was 18.7%, YoY -1.8pcts. 4Q25 deliveries reached 109.2k units, YoY/QoQ -31.2%/+17.1%. Among them, L6 and i6 together delivered 61k units, accounting for 55%. The company expects 1Q26 deliveries of 85k–90k units and revenue of RMB20.4bn–RMB21.6bn. In 2Q26, the company will launch the all-new L9 series and the L9 Livis flagship version. The i9 will be launched in 2H26, and the self-developed M100 chip will be installed in vehicles within the year. The company continues to increase AI R&D investment. The 2026 R&D expense guidance is RMB12bn, with AI accounting for 50%. The effective computing power of the self-developed M100 chip is 6 times that of Thor- U. Together with channel optimization and upgraded operating mechanisms, the fundamentals are expected to reach an upward inflection point in 2Q. In the long term, the company is expected to transform into an embodied AI enterprise and achieve valuation re-rating.
Event
The company released its 4Q25 and full-year 2025 results announcement. 4Q25 operating revenue was RMB28.78bn, YoY/QoQ -35%/+5.2%. Net profit was RMB20mn, YoY -99.4%, and Non-GAAP net profit was RMB270mn, YoY -93.2% and turned profitable QoQ. Gross margin was 17.8%, YoY/QoQ - 2.5pct/+1.5pcts. Operating revenue in 2025 was RMB112.3bn, YoY -22.3%. Net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was RMB1.1bn, YoY -85.8%. Full-year gross margin was 18.7%, YoY -1.8pcts.
Risks:
1、 Worse-than-expected industry outlook. The pace of domestic economic recovery in 2026 remains uncertain, and demand in the automotive industry may fluctuate accordingly; the full implementation of policies promoting trade-ins for consumer goods such as automobiles will take time, potentially delaying the recovery of industry demand.
2、 In-house technology development falls short of expectations. The company’s intelligent driving chips and related technologies serve as core competitive barriers. If chip mass production yields are insufficient or intelligent driving algorithm iterations fall short of expectations, it will affect the intelligent experience and advantages of its vehicle models.
3、 Intensified competition landscape. With technological advancements, the introduction of new production capacities, and other shifts in supply factors, industry competition may intensify in the future, potentially causing fluctuations in the company's market share and profitability.
4、 The development of new customers and mass production of new projects may fail to meet expectations. The company is accelerating customer development, but due to fluctuations in automakers ’ new model development cycles, there may be timing-related volatility in project nominations. In addition, new capacity ramp-up could be delayed by uncontrollable factors, resulting in slower-than-expected mass production progress.

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