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CHINA GOLD INTERNATIONAL(02099.HK):GOLD PRICE CONTINUES TO RISE MAINTAIN "NEUTRAL"

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2020-07-30
  Both copper and gold price have been rising over the past two months.
  The rise in gold price has mainly been driven by investment demand, and therecent rise in copper price has mainly been driven by speculators, as demandprospects for copper remains dismal.
Revise up gold price assumptions, but maintain copper priceassumptions unchanged. We expect gold price to benefit from loosemonetary policy and investor demand for safe haven assets. We expect theannual average gold price to be around US$1,650/oz-US$1,750/oz in 2020.
  We expect copper price to be badly hit by the COVID-19 pandemic and theaverage annual copper price to trade between US$5,000/t-US$5,500/t.
Maintain mining output assumptions unchanged. In 2020, the Companyplans to produce 212,000 oz of mined gold and about 65,750 tons of minedcopper. The output of mined gold from the CSH mine is expected to declineslightly in 2020, but the output of mined copper from the Jiama Mine willcontinue to increase.
Revise up TP to HK$7.76 but maintain "Neutral".

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