Vanke just hosted its July sales conference and talked about the latest trend on policy, sales and land markets. For policy, it confirms rumored regulatory requirement that land acquisition cannot exceed 40% of sales. For sales, management has seen some momentum decline in those previously over-heated cities but Vanke’s sell-through rate remained healthy at 62% in July (vs. 60% in June). Land market seems less crowded coming into the second batch of supply, which is good for margins in the longer term.
Land acquisition cannot exceed 40% of sales? Vanke has always followed a disciplined land acquisition strategy and replenished land banks based on sales. In the first seven months, land acquisition expenses only accounted for 33% of sales, well below the restriction.
Latest sales momentum? Based on the data we have, the sell-through rate of new projects was 62% in July vs. 60% in June and 57% in May, which looks resilient. However, there was some sales momentum drop in those previously over-heated cities mainly because 1) mortgage cycle has prolonged to two months or above by some banks together with rising mortgage rates. 2) Some cities followed Shenzhen to announce the price index of secondary homes. This would cap the maximal loan amount and impact the upgrade demand.
On 2nd batch of land supply? We observed more thresholds have been added to limit the competition in second batch of land supply such as source of funding, only allowing one identity and so on. Also, land premiums have been capped for reasonable margins. Together with liquidity tightening, In Wuxi, some lots have not reached highest premiums and even one plot went unwanted. This indicates a more rational land market but the market consolidation may slow down as many lots will be decided by lottery.
Any impacts from some developers’ price cuts? We do see some competitors applying price discounts, however, mainly in lower tier cities. The impacts on those markets could be relatively significant. Vanke focuses on battlefields in 1st and 2nd tier cities and has not seen any material impacts so far.
Other business? For property management, Vanke just acquired a top-20 PM firm using its shares and this would continue to help it gain market share and create better synergy. For commercial business, it is Vanke’s new focus and that’s why it appointed Mr. Wang Haiwu to lead SCP.