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XTALPI(2228.HK):AI-DRIVEN INNOVATION UNLOCKS EXPANSIVE COMMERCIAL PROSPECTS

招银国际证券有限公司2025-04-03
  XtalPi’s revenue increased by 52.8% YoY to RMB266mn in FY24, driven by strong growth in its intelligent robotics solutions segment, which rose by 87.8% to RMB163mn. This was largely due to robust demand of XtalPi R&D solutions, including traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) and electrolyte robotics offerings, as well as increased revenue from automated chemical synthesis services. During the period, revenue from drug discovery solutions also grew by 18.2% YoY to RMB104mn, supported by an expanded customer base and a higher number of revenue-generating programs. In FY24, XtalPi’s adjusted net loss (excluding impact from share-based compensation, fair value loss of convertible preferred shares and listing expenses) reduced by 12.5% YoY to RMB457mn. R&D expenses declined by 13.0% YoY to RMB418m, in which SG&A expenses increased by 36% YoY to RMB489mn, mainly due to higher share-based compensation and listing-related expenses. Contract fulfillment costs increased by 13.3% YoY to RMB143mn, in line with expanded service delivery. As of end-2024, XtalPi had RMB3.1bn cash balance. The company further strengthened its financial position by completing two fundraising placement in early 2025, raising HK$3.2bn to enhance its cash reserves and fund future growth initiatives.
  AI platform powering dual-core growth. XtalPi leverages its proprietary AI- powered R&D platform to deliver stable and accelerating revenue growth across two core business areas: drug discovery and intelligent robotics. For drug discovery, the company offers end-to-end modular solutions and has built strategic collaborations with leading global and domestic pharma companies, including Eli Lilly, J&J, UCB, Zhuhai United Lab, Signet Therapeutics, META Biopharma and N1 Life. Notably, a drug candidate co-developed with Signet for the treatment of diffuse gastric cancer has entered Ph1 clinical trials in China and the US, while another candidate developed in collaboration with META, targeting primary hyperoxaluria, has progressed to the IND stage.
  Strategic partnerships across industries. Beyond healthcare, XtalPi has extended its reach into materials science, agriculture, consumer, AI infrastructure, and other emerging verticals through extensive collaborations. These cross-industry partnerships highlight XtalPi’s ability to deliver scalable, AI-enabled solutions with broad applicability. For instance, in the energy sector, XtalPi collaborates with GCL Group to accelerate the development of new materials for the green transition. It also deployed a high-throughput synthesis and catalyst pre-treatment solution for Sinopec’s Research Institute. In the high- tech arena, XtalPi works with Microsoft China on innovations in biomedicine and new materials. XtalPi’s expanding ecosystem of partnerships reflects its strong commercialization potential across AI and robotics-enabled industries.
  Maintain BUY. With broad collaborations and cross-industry applications, XtalPi is well-positioned to create long-term value across multiple sectors. We derive our target price of HK$7.57 based on a DCF model (WACC: 9.45%, terminal growth rate: 4.0%).
  Risks: Potential delays in partnered R&D pipelines, uncertainty in

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