R&F Properties in line with expectations
R&F Properties announced its FY16 results: revenue wasRmb53.73bn (+21% YoY) and core net profit was Rmb6.57bn,(+10% YoY), with core diluted EPS of Rmb2.04, a full-year DPSof Rmb1.0 (vs. Rmb0.9/sh guided), and dividend yield at 9.2%.
GPM <30% due to product mix. Contribution of Beijing &Guangzhou (GPM ~40%) was 29% vs. 55% in FY15.
A small expansion of net gearing. A narrow +8ppt rise from1H16 to 177%.
Smart land replenishment. It purchased attributable 5mnsqm at an average floor price Rmb3,500/sqm in hot cities.
Trends to watch
FY17 sales target at Rmb73bn (+20% YoY), by abundantsaleable resources Rmb140bn & fast construction (+24% YoY)。
Top line on track; GPM back to 30%. FY17e top line,Rmb62.2bn (+16% YoY), is after booked GFA 4.8mn sqm (byR&F) & booked ASP at Rmb12k~12.5k/sqm (CICCe)。 GPM ofproducts sold but undelivered (3.4mn sqm) is ~30% (CICCe)。
Net gearing well controllable, with land purchase to scaleback. We believe it could get a positive operating cash flow.
Handsome DPS to continue. We expect it to exceedRmb1.0/sh in FY17e supported by a fine growth of core CNP.
Earnings forecast
We slightly trim FY17e core NP by 1% to Rmb7.5bn dueto adjusted delivery schedule; introduce FY18e core NP atRmb8.4bn (+12% YoY) with core NPM f 12.1%.
Valuation and recommendation
The stock is trading at 4.6x 2017e P/E. Maintain BUY; hike TPby 11% to HK$15.15 (25% upside) for itsbetter-than-expected land purchase. New TP is 5.8x 2017e P/Eand a 33% discount to 2017e NAV.
Risks
Over land replenishments in 2017e.