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CHINA STATE CONSTRUCTION INTERNATIONAL(03311.HK):1Q2024 OPERATING PROFIT INCREASED 15.1% YOY TO HK$3.91 BILLION MAINTAIN “BUY”

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2024-04-28
  Reiterate "Buy" rating and maintain the TP at HK$15.00. We maintain the EPS forecasts for China State Construction International (CSCI, the "Company") for 2024/ 2025/ 2026 at HK$2.028/ HK$2.266/ HK$2.503, respectively. We maintain the TP at HK$15.00, equivalent to 7.2x/ 7.1x/ 6.9x 2024/ 2025/ 2026 EV/EBITDA.
  1Q2024 newly signed contracts increased 69.6% YoY to HK$80.09 billion. 1) 1Q2024 revenue was HK$24.17 billion (+11.7% YoY), operating profit was HK$3.91 billion (+15.1% YoY), and newly signed contracts were HK$80.09 billion (+69.6% YoY). Backlog was HK$394.95 billion (+24.0% YoY) as at 31 March, 2024. 2) The Company and the Veolia Group formed a consortium and won the bid of New Territories West Landfill Expansion Project. The total contract value reached HK$61.1 billion, and the contract value attributable to the Company was HK$42.7 billion, the largest engineering project in the Company’s history. After completion, the project can provide a landfill capacity of approximately 76 million m3, making it the largest landfill in Hong Kong. 3) MIC projects have been promoting in the Chinese mainland market, including the first high-rise concrete MiC project in Shandong Province (employee dormitory of Qingdao Optoelectronics Industrial Park), and the second talent housing MIC project in Shenzhen (police apartment on the land of the former Vehicle Management Office in Futian District). 4) The value of newly signed contracts in 2024 target is not less than HK$210 billion (+11.7% YoY).
  Catalysts: 1) The green low-carbon intelligent construction base project in Shenzhen officially started construction; 2) the Company won the bid for the expansion project of the New Territories West Landfill in Hong Kong together with other construction companies, with a total contract value of HK$61.1 billion, the single largest project in contract value in its history.
  Risks: 1) Government infrastructure spending may be lower than expected; 2) overseas project risks.

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