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CHONGQING RURAL BANK ALERT(3618.HK):ACCESS CHINA CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS 2017

德意志银行股份有限公司2017-01-11
  On operating trends, management expects NIM to decline further in 1H17,before seeing a recovery in 2H17. The anticipated NIM contraction in 1H17comes from tax reform (i.e., replacing business tax with VAT) rather than lowerinterest rates, of which the negative impact was already reflected in 2016.
  Loan growth is expected to be stable. The company will control its lending tothe manufacturing sector, and focus more on consumption loans.
  On asset quality, NPL is low at less than 1%, albeit 2016 NPL formation was ona rising trend. Management expects NPL formation to peak in 2017 after threeyears of asset quality deterioration. CRCB has not transferred its NPL to AMCin the past, as CRCB has its own expertise in dealing with the issues, althoughthis will take longer (two to three years)。 However, from the company's ownexperience, even when the property market is not good, the loan recovery ratiowith collaterals is still above 60%. CRCB has limited exposure to theovercapacity sector, accounting for less than 2% of its loan book.
  On loan loss provision, the bank continues to take a prudent approach, withthe 3Q16 provision coverage ratio reaching c.400%, significantly higher thanthe required standard. Management has highlighted several reasons: 1) CRCBhas a long history of keeping its coverage ratio at high levels; 2) profitability isgood for the bank, allowing it to set aside higher provisions; 3) the bank wroteoff some NPLs in 2016, so the denominator becomes smaller when calculatingthe coverage ratio.
  On WMP, the business grew fast in 2016. The growth rate will remain high inthe next two years but develop at a slower pace. The company issuedRMB400bn-worth of wealth management products last year, and by 3Q16,there was RMB150bn outstanding, of which RMB40bn was on-balance sheet.
  The company expects the inclusion of off-balance sheet WMP to MPA to havea limited impact on the bank, as the majority of its investment is to the moneymarkets rather than to project loans.
  On other topics, CRCB is seeking a dual listing in the domestic market. Themoney raised will be used to replenish its capital, as its core tier-1, currentlystanding at 9.8%, is under pressure.

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