We revise down our 2024E/25E earnings forecast by 5/2%, after incorporating our new industry HDT sales forecast (for details, please refer to our sector report “China Heavy-duty Truck - Headwinds in 4Q24 in both China & export; Eyes on policy-driven recovery in 2025”). We forecast ~20% YoY earnings decline in 2H24E, before recovering in 2025E. We rolled over our target valuation to 2025E, with a new TP of HK$21.4 (previously HK$19.5) which is based on 4.5x EV/EBITDA (equivalent to the historical average). We believe the earnings downside risk has yet to be reflected in the current share price, in particular after recent rally. Maintain HOLD.
　　Upside risks: (1) Stronger-than-expected replacement demand; (2) further expansion of new overseas markets.
　　Downside risks: (1) further weakness in export sales; (3) lack of recovery in China.