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SINOTRUK(HONG KONG)(3808.HK):1H25 PROFIT IN-LINE WITH OUR BELOW-CONSENSUS FORECAST;STABLE GROWTH FOR FULL YEAR LARGELY PRICED IN

招银国际证券有限公司2025-08-28
  Sinotruk’s 1H25 net profit grew 4% YoY to RMB3.4bn, which is largely in-line with our below-consensus estimate. Sinotruk proposed an interim dividend of HK$0.74/shr, equivalent to 55% of dividend payout. We maintain our view that the lack of export growth will weaken the overall sales growth this year (despite decent sales from China). We slightly fine-tune our 2025E-27E earnings forecasts by -1% to +1%. Our new TP of HK$20.4 (previously HK$20.5) is based on unchanged 5x EV/EBITDA (equivalent to the historical average). Maintain
  HOLD.
  HDT: Sinotruk delivered 136k units of HDTs in 1H25, up 9% YoY (China: 67.5k units, +19%; exports: 69k units, +0.8%). New energy HDT grew 2.2x YoY, equivalent to a market share of 11.8%, according to Sinotruk. Blended ASP for HDT dropped 4.7% YoY to RMB323k/unit. Segment profit increased 3.6% YoY to RMB2.6bn with the segment margin largely remained stable YoY at 6%. We revise up our full-year HDT sales assumptions by 3%, but slightly lower segment margin.
  LDT: LDT sales increased 10% YoY to 62.8k units in 1H25, with ASP decreased 3% YoY. Segment loss expanded 37% YoY to RMB174mn. We expect the segment loss to continue throughout the year.
  Engine: Total engine volume (95% internal sales) grew 37% YoY to 73.2k units in 1H25 but blended ASP dropped 22% YoY (which we believe is more related to the change in product mix). Segment profit grew 10% YoY to RMB1.38bn. We revise up our engine sales volume and segment margin forecasts but incorporate lower ASP.
  Auto finance. The segment revenue dropped 21% YoY to RMB591mn in 1H25, with the segment profit dropping 16% YoY to RMB294mn. Given that Sinotruk will gradually scale down the finance business, we expect the segment revenue and profit will decline gradually going forward.
  Upside risks: (1) Stronger-than-expected replacement demand in China; (2) surprise on new overseas markets.
  Downside risks: Weakness in export sales.

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