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CHINA AOY(03883.HK):2019 RESULTS WERE IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS MAINTAIN "BUY"

国泰君安国际控股有限公司2020-04-14
  2019 Contracted sales target was achieved; 2020 contracted sales hasbeen further raised. In 2019, contracted sales amount grew by 29.3% YoY toRMB118.06 bn, achieving 103.5% of the Company’s 2019 sales target. TheCompany decided to further increase its contracted sales target to approximatelyRMB132 bn in 2020 with a target sell-through rate of approximately 60.0%.
Abundant land bank with low unit land cost is expected to support theCompany’s business expansion. As at 31 Dec. 2019, the Company had a totalland bank GFA of approximately 45.03 million sq.m (attributable: 79%) withaverage unit land cost of RMB2,536 per sq.m, representing only 25.1% of ASP in2019. Land bank in the GBA accounted for 18.4% of its total land bank GFA.
2019 shareholders’ net profit surged by 74.4% YoY to RMB4,201 mn, whichwas in line with our expectation. The Company’s 2019 top line soared by63.0% YoY to RMB50,531 mn, driven by the increase in both ASP and GFA ofdelivered projects. We expect underlying net profit in 2020-2022 to reachRMB5,902 mn, RMB7,097 mn and RMB8,245 mn, respectively.
The Company has accumulated unbooked revenue of RMB170.5 bn as a resultof robust contracted sales growth in 2016-2019, which is expected to berecognized in the next two years, indicating steady growth prospect. We revisedown target price to HK$13.68, representing a 57.8% discount to 2020E NAV ofHK$32.39 per share, 5.5x 2020 underlying PER and 1.7x 2020 PBR.
  Investment rating is maintained as "Buy". Risk factors: lower-than-expectedcontracted sales, and uncertainties of overseas projects and redevelopmentprojects.

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