Management scale recorded notable growth. GFA under management grewfrom 22.97 mn sq.m as at the end of 2020 to 25.22 mn sq.m as at the end of1H2021. Contracted GFA reached 41.48 mn sq.m as at the end of 1H2021, whileproject reserve GFA reached historical high of 16.26 mn sq.m. Sufficient projectreserve will support continuous expansion in management scale in 2021-2023.
Continued increase in occupancy rate indicates higher growth quality.
Average occupancy rate in retail commercial projects gradually improved from87.1% in 1H2020 to 89.9% in 2020 and further increased to 92.3% in 1H2021. Atthis stage, the occupancy rate in some projects is still relatively low. We projectaverage occupancy rate to gradually improve to approx. 93%-94% by 2021 end.
1H2021 profit growth was in line with expectations. Top line increased by34.8% YoY to RMB1,171 mn. Gross margin in commercial operation servicesimproved by 3.0 ppts YoY to 34.7%, while gross margin in residential propertymanagement services improved by 2.8 ppts YoY to 24.7%. Overall gross profitmargin improved by 3.4 ppts YoY to 32.8%. Shareholders’ net profit surged by40.3% YoY to RMB203 mn. Interim DPS grew by 50% YoY to HK15.0 cents,representing a dividend payout ratio of 38.8%.
Improvement in both management scale and occupancy rate reflects morebalanced business development. Special focus in management and operation ofretail commercial projects reflects the Company’s relatively high uniquenessamong industry peers listed in Hong Kong. We revise up TP to HK$30.20 pershare and set investment rating as "Buy". The TP represents 38.2x/ 27.3x/20.7x 2021-2023 PER. Risk factors: lower-than-expected GFA undermanagement and uncertainties related to retail commercial projects.
管理规模录得显著增长。在管面积由2020 年末的2,297 万平方米增长至2021 年上半年末的2,522 万平方米。签约面积在2021 年上半年达到4,148 万平方米,而项目储备面积达到1,626万平方米的历史新高。充沛的项目储备将在2021-2023 年支撑管理规模的持续扩张。
入驻率的持续提升显示出更高的增长质量。零售商业项目的平均入驻率由2020 年上半年的87.1%增长至2020 年的89.9%并进一步增长至2021 年上半年的92.3%。当前有一些项目入驻率仍然相对偏低。我们预计2021 年末的平均入驻率将逐渐提升至93%-94%左右。
2021 年上半年利润增长符合预期。总收入同比上升34.8%至人民币11.71 亿元。商业运营服务的毛利率同比提升3.0 个百分点至34.7%,而住宅物业管理服务的毛利率同比提升2.8 个百分点至24.7%。总体毛利率同比提升3.4 个百分点至32.8%。股东净利同比大增40.3%至人民币2.03 亿元。中期每股股息同比增加50%至15.0 港仙,相当于38.8%的派息比率。
管理规模与入驻率的共同提升反映出业务发展更为均衡。对于零售商业项目管理和运营的专精反映了公司在香港上市同业中较高的稀缺性。我们上调目标价至每股30.20 港元并给予“买入”
的投资评级。目标价分别相当于38.2 倍/ 27.3 倍/ 20.7 倍2021-2023 年市盈率。风险因素:
低于预期的在管面积以及零售商业项目存在不确定性。