2025 revenue was RMB3.06bn, slightly below our expectation, mainly due to sharp price cut after NRDL inclusion, despite strong volume and patient expansion. Adjusted net loss widened to RMB535, below market expectation. However, we have positive view on the commercialisation in 2026 as more indications and products were included in NRDL. In addition, we keep eyes on the several key data readouts of AK112 in 2026. Post results, we lowered our TP to HK$174, and maintain BUY.
Key Factors for Rating
Slightly missed top-line growth and widened non-IFRS loss: Akeso reported a slightly missed top line with revenue up 44% to RMB3.06bn, of which drugs sales were RMB3.0bn, up 50% YoY, driven by NRDL inclusion of cadonilimab (AK104, PD-1/CTLA-4, 2L cervical cancer) and ivonescimab (AK112, PD-1/VEGF, 2L EGFRmut NSCLC ). However, drug gross margin decreased by 8ppt to 79%, mainly due to price cuts on AK104 and AK112 following their NRDL inclusion. R&D expenses ratio and selling expenses ratio decreased 7ppts and 3ppts to 51% and 47%, respectively, while admin expenses ratio remained at 10%. IFRS net loss widened from RMB515m in 2024 to RMB1.11bn in 2025 mainly to increased R&D and selling expenses, share of Summit losses (RMB325m), share-based compensation, FX change, etc. Non-IFRS loss widened from RMB503m in 2024 to RMB535m in 2025, missed market expectation.
Constructive tone on 2026 commercialisation: AK112 and AK104 have experienced steep NRDL-related price cuts in 2025, and still grew strongly, suggesting underlying volume and patient expansion remained robust, despite only relatively limited reimbursed indications. Although the management did not provide any guidance on the commercialisation in 2026, the management’s tone on 2026 was clearly constructive, as more reimbursed, larger indications start to contribute (e.g. 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC of AK112, 1L GC and 1L cervical cancer of AK104, PCSK9 mAb, PD-1 mAb, IL12/23 mAb), hospital access is already largely in place and the salesforce has expanded to 1300 people by YE25.
New platforms introduced: apart from its core bispecific antibody platform, the company has been exploring more diversified platform spanning ADCs, TCEs, autoimmune assets, CNS programmes and extrahepatic RNA delivery. The management highlights early-stage assets like AK138D1 (HER3 ADC), AK146D1 (Trop2/Nectin4 BsADC), AK139 (IL-4Rα/ST2 bispecific), AK154 personalised mRNA vaccine, AK150 trispecific, and AK152 anti-Aβ/BBB receptor bispecific for Alzheimer’s disease during the call. In our view, ivonescimab remains the primary re-rating driver, but the broader platform is becoming more important for medium-term valuation.
Key catalysts in 2026: ivonescimab remains the primary re-rating driver of Akeso, including (i) HARMONi-6 (AK112 + chemo vs. tislelizumab + chemo in 1L sqNSCLC in China) OS readout, (ii) HAMONi-2 (AK112 vs Keytruda in 1L PD-L1+ NSCLC in China) final OS, (iii) HARMONi-3 squamous cohort (AK112 +chemo vs. Keytruday + chemo in sqNSCLC in global) interim PFS data, (iv) FDA’s decision on BLA of AK112 + chemo in 2L EGFRmut NSCLC and (v) data readout of AK112- 309 (AK112+chemo vs. versus durvalumab+ chemo in 1L BTC).
Key Risks for Rating
Failure of regulatory filing; (ii) slower-than-expected sales ramp-up of new drugs; and (iii) failure of major clinical trials.
Valuation
Post results, we lowered our 2026/27 revenue forecasts and raise our selling and R&D expenses estimates, rolled over our DCF model, and derived new TP of 174. Maintain BUY rating.