Yum China reported 3Q25 revenue of US$3.2bn (+4% YoY), and core operating profit of US$399m (+8% YoY), in line with our expectations. We maintain our net profit attributable to shareholders forecasts of US$938m, US$1.0bn, and US$1.1bn from 2025E to 2027E. We maintain target price of HK$450, with 28% upside potential, wemaintain a Buy rating.
　　Record Q3 store openings of KFC and Pizza Hut. The company added 536 net new stores in Q3, bringing the total store count to 17,514, including 12,640 KFC stores and 4,022 Pizza Hut stores. KFC/Pizza Hut entered 310+/170+ new cities in the past12 months, with the total number of cities entered reaching over 2,500/c.1000 respectively. Among the net new stores in 9M25, franchise stores accounted for 41%/27% of KFC/Pizza Hut respectively.
　　New store formats facilitating the expansion of consumption scenarios and cities. The number of KCoffee Café stores has reached c.1,800. The number of KPRO reached 100+. Pizza Hut WOW has entered more than 40 cities where there were no Pizza Hut stores.
　　Positive SSSG. KFC’s same-store sales growth (sssg) rose 2% YoY, with transaction volume +3%, and average price -1% (at Rmb38) , mainly driven by the strong growth of small orders. Pizza Hut’s sssg increased 1% YoY, with transaction volume +17%,and average price -13% (at Rmb70). The company targets 4Q25 sssg at similar levels as 3Q25, achieving 12th consecutive quarter of positive same-store transaction growth, and expects core operting profit margin to maintain stable YoY due to a tougher base.
　　Maintain Buy. We like the company’s solid earnings growth and attractive capital returns. We maintain target price of HK$450, with 28% upside potential, we maintain a Buy rating.
　　Risks: Lower-than-expected sssg.
　　百胜中国3Q25 实现收入32 亿美元（同比增长4%），核心经营利润3.99 亿美元（同比增长8%），符合我们的预期。我们维持2025 年到2027 年归母净利润预测分别为9.38 亿美元，10 亿美元，11 亿美元。根据DCF 估值，维持目标价450 港币，对应28%的上涨空间，维持买入评级。
　　肯德基和必胜客的净开店创第三季度新高。公司Q3 净新增门店536 家至17,514 家，其中肯德基12,640 家，必胜客4,022 家。肯德基/必胜客过去12 个月新进入310+/170+个城市，已进入城市数量分别达到 2500+/~1000 个。净新增门店中，肯德基/必胜客的加盟店占比分别为41%/27%。
　　新店型帮助扩展消费场景和城市。肯悦咖啡的门店数量达到约1,800 家；KPRO 门店数量超过100 家；必胜客WOW 于9M25 已入驻40+个此前无必胜客的城市。
　　同店收入维持正增长。肯德基的同店收入同比+2%，其中交易量+3%，客单价-1%（38 元），主要由于小单的快速增长；必胜客的同店收入同比+1%，其中交易量+17%，客单价-13%（70元）。公司目标Q4 的同店表现跟Q3 类似，同店销售额连续第12 个季度正增长，核心经营利润率由于高对比基数预计同比持平。
　　维持买入评级。我们看好公司稳健的业绩和高股东回报。维持目标价450 港币，维持买入评级。
　　风险提示：同店增速不及预期。